215 

abio10 pgtw 211800

msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//

subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian

/Ocean/211800z-221800znov2009//

rmks/

1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):

   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.

   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.

2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):

   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.

   B. Tropical disturbance summary:

      (1) an area of convection has persisted near 10.2s 60.3e,

approximately 625 nm east-northeast of Madagascar. Animated water

vapor imagery shows increased convection over an ill-defined low

level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates the system

is under the divergent northwest quadrant of an anticyclone. A 211423

coriolis microwave image supports a consolidating trend of the

convective bands that are mostly on the western side of the LLCC.

Most available numeric models develop the system into a significant

tropical cyclone by tau 72. Maximum sustained surface winds,

extrapolated  from a 210605z ascat pass, are estimated at 15 to 20

knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone

within the next 24 hours is poor.

      (2) no other suspect areas.//



215 


abio10 pgtw 211800

msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//

subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian

/Ocean/211800z-221800znov2009//

rmks/

1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):

   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.

   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.

2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):

   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.

   B. Tropical disturbance summary:

      (1) an area of convection has persisted near 10.2s 60.3e,

approximately 625 nm east-northeast of Madagascar. Animated water

vapor imagery shows increased convection over an ill-defined low

level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates the system

is under the divergent northwest quadrant of an anticyclone. A 211423

coriolis microwave image supports a consolidating trend of the

convective bands that are mostly on the western side of the LLCC.

Most available numeric models develop the system into a significant

tropical cyclone by tau 72. Maximum sustained surface winds,

extrapolated  from a 210605z ascat pass, are estimated at 15 to 20

knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone

within the next 24 hours is poor.

      (2) no other suspect areas.//