334 

axpz20 knhc 220339

twdep 


Tropical weather discussion

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC sun Nov 22 2009


Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 

the Equator to 32n...east of 140w. 


Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0215 UTC.


...ITCZ...

axis extends from 07n77w to 06n79w to 06n96w to 07n103w to 

06n110w to 09n124w to 08n135w to 06.5n140w.  Scattered moderate 

to strong within 240 nm N and 120 nm S of axis W of 124w.  

Scattered moderate within 90 nm of axis between 100w and 110w... 

and along 81w.


...Discussion...

broad mid-upper level ridge persists along 10n between 150w and 

110w...and continues to maintain a blocking effect across the 

epac while continuing to ventilate moderate to strong cnvtn 

along the ITCZ W of 120...which is occurring across the nrn 

fringes of a tongue of anomalously warm surface and sub surface 

waters. Broad zonal flow across the top of this ridge extends N 

to 25/26n...where a narrow mid-upper trough extends from the 

central Baja California peninsula wwd in a TUTT like fashion to 

an upper low N of Hawaii along 154w. These wly's N of the ridge 

are transporting upper level moisture sheared off from ITCZ 

cnvtn S through se of the  Hawaiian islands NE then E...across 

Mexico and into the srn Gulf of Mexico...effecting the famed 

pineapple express. A significant srn stream upper trough 

sweeping across the Hawaiian islands tonight is forecast to move 

E across the epac over the next several days and begin to erode 

portions of this blocking tropical ridge by mid week. In fact 

this upper trough is forecast to dig deep into the tropical epac 

and move E across the baja and into Mexico Thu-Fri and 

significantly alter the low level pattern.


E of this ridge...a mid to upper level trough extends from a mid 

level low just off the E coast of Nicaragua...SW across Central 

America to an elongated mid-upper low terminating near 03n110w. 

Upper convergence dominates most of this region E of 118w and is 

leading to dry and very stable conditions across most of this 

area...except in the vicinity of these upper lows.   


At the surface...

a 1026 mb high centered at 33n141w has a ridge extending se to 

offshore of baja...behind a now diffuse front...continuing se to 

14n105w...and is maintaining fresh to strong trades due S of the 

ridge...W of 120w.  Large long period NW swell continues to 

propagate se...covering most of epac...with another pulse now 

crossing 20n. W of 120w...seas remain confused at 10-13 ft in a 

broad mix of nely wind swell...N to NW swell...and very long 

period srn hemi swell from the SW. Similar mixed and merging 

long period swell dominated the equatorial belt south and ewd.


Moderate gap winds continue to flow through Gulf of papagayo 

this evening and are expected to increase and expand SW Sunday. 

Nly flow from Gulf of Mexico has initiated another pulse of gap 

winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec today...presently 20-25 

kt...that will likely increase a bit overnight through Sunday 

morning before gradually diminishing through Sunday afternoon 

and evening...then quickly diminish Mon.   


$$

Stripling





334 

axpz20 knhc 220339

twdep 




Tropical weather discussion

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC sun Nov 22 2009




Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 

the Equator to 32n...east of 140w. 




Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0215 UTC.




...ITCZ...

axis extends from 07n77w to 06n79w to 06n96w to 07n103w to 

06n110w to 09n124w to 08n135w to 06.5n140w.  Scattered moderate 

to strong within 240 nm N and 120 nm S of axis W of 124w.  

Scattered moderate within 90 nm of axis between 100w and 110w... 

and along 81w.




...Discussion...

broad mid-upper level ridge persists along 10n between 150w and 

110w...and continues to maintain a blocking effect across the 

epac while continuing to ventilate moderate to strong cnvtn 

along the ITCZ W of 120...which is occurring across the nrn 

fringes of a tongue of anomalously warm surface and sub surface 

waters. Broad zonal flow across the top of this ridge extends N 

to 25/26n...where a narrow mid-upper trough extends from the 

central Baja California peninsula wwd in a TUTT like fashion to 

an upper low N of Hawaii along 154w. These wly's N of the ridge 

are transporting upper level moisture sheared off from ITCZ 

cnvtn S through se of the  Hawaiian islands NE then E...across 

Mexico and into the srn Gulf of Mexico...effecting the famed 

pineapple express. A significant srn stream upper trough 

sweeping across the Hawaiian islands tonight is forecast to move 

E across the epac over the next several days and begin to erode 

portions of this blocking tropical ridge by mid week. In fact 

this upper trough is forecast to dig deep into the tropical epac 

and move E across the baja and into Mexico Thu-Fri and 

significantly alter the low level pattern.




E of this ridge...a mid to upper level trough extends from a mid 

level low just off the E coast of Nicaragua...SW across Central 

America to an elongated mid-upper low terminating near 03n110w. 

Upper convergence dominates most of this region E of 118w and is 

leading to dry and very stable conditions across most of this 

area...except in the vicinity of these upper lows.   




At the surface...

a 1026 mb high centered at 33n141w has a ridge extending se to 

offshore of baja...behind a now diffuse front...continuing se to 

14n105w...and is maintaining fresh to strong trades due S of the 

ridge...W of 120w.  Large long period NW swell continues to 

propagate se...covering most of epac...with another pulse now 

crossing 20n. W of 120w...seas remain confused at 10-13 ft in a 

broad mix of nely wind swell...N to NW swell...and very long 

period srn hemi swell from the SW. Similar mixed and merging 

long period swell dominated the equatorial belt south and ewd.




Moderate gap winds continue to flow through Gulf of papagayo 

this evening and are expected to increase and expand SW Sunday. 

Nly flow from Gulf of Mexico has initiated another pulse of gap 

winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec today...presently 20-25 

kt...that will likely increase a bit overnight through Sunday 

morning before gradually diminishing through Sunday afternoon 

and evening...then quickly diminish Mon.   




$$

Stripling