393
axnt20 knhc 011746
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Mon Dec 01 2008
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections
of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast
from the Equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather
observations...and radar.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...The ITCZ...
the ITCZ axis is analyzed along 8n8w 5n30w 2n51w. Scattered
moderate convection is from 4n-8n between 18w-28w. Isolated
moderate convection is from 4n-9n between 43w-50w.
...Discussion...
Gulf of Mexico...
a vigorous deep layer trough is over the ern conus dipping into
the central and wrn Gulf. This trough supports two cold fronts.
One extends across the W Atlc waters into The Straits of Florida
across far wrn Cuba into the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered
showers are across srn Florida...the se Gulf and Yucatan
Channel. A reinforcing surface cold front extends from the
Florida Big Bend near 29n83w SW to 27n85w and 24n91w. As cooler
air behind the front is advected over relatively warmer Gulf
waters...low level instability is generating scattered
stratocumulus clouds in the wake of the front N of 24n. The
presence of deep layer dry air and stable conditions are
preventing the development of any deep convection across the
Gulf region. A surface ridge extends se from a 1026 mb surface
high centered over N/central Mexico near 28n103w. N-NE surface
flow around this ridge is generating broken to overcast clouds
into the Bay of Campeche with possible isolated showers S of 22n.
Caribbean Sea...
the aforementioned cold front associated with the deep layer
trough across the Gulf region extends across wrn Cuba and into
the NW Caribbean as a stationary boundary to near 16n86w. Low
level convergence with this front and instability along and
ahead of the front are supporting scattered showers and tstms
from 20n across Cuba and into the W Atlc between 80w-83w. This
activity is being enhanced by upper level divergence as an upper
ridge is anchored in the central and ern Caribbean centered over
Hispaniola. A 1012 mb surface low is centered E of Nicaragua
near 14n82w. Low level convergence near this low is supporting
scattered showers/isolated tstms from 10n-16n between 80w-83w.
This activity is also being enhanced by the upper diffluent
pattern in place over the SW Caribbean with moist southwesterly
flow aloft. Elsewhere...low-level cyclonic curvature is observed
in the wind field and is inducing scattered showers from 12n-16n
between 60w-66w across the ern Caribbean ushered in on fresh
easterly trades.
Atlantic Ocean...
a vigorous deep layer trough is over the ern conus with strong
upper level divergence E of the trough across the W Atlc waters.
This though supports a cold front that enters the discussion
area near 32n74w and extends SW to Grand Bahama Island and
across the Florida Straits to wrn Cuba. Scattered showers and
tstms are within 150 nm E of the front...including the NW
Bahamas and central Cuba. To the E...a 1028 mb surface high is
centered near 30n56w with support from an amplified upper ridge
centered over Hispaniola which extends NE beyond 32n63w. Across
the E Atlc...a surface low is centered near 27n34w with a
surface trough extending SW from the low along 24n34w 15n40w to
12n46w. This surface feature is supported by sharp upper level
troughing that extends from an upper low north of the region
near 37n37w. The upper trough axis is along 30n39w 20n45w to
13n56w. Low level convergence near the surface trough is
generating scattered showers within 90 nm E of the feature S of
22n while an area of scattered showers is from 22n-32n between
26w-33w. Elsewhere...an upper ridge is S of 20n between the
African coast and 33w...with an upper high near 8n13w. Upper
level diffluence associated with these upper features are
enhancing convection in the vicinity of the ITCZ E of 33w.
$$
Huffman
393
axnt20 knhc 011746
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Mon Dec 01 2008
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections
of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast
from the Equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather
observations...and radar.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...The ITCZ...
the ITCZ axis is analyzed along 8n8w 5n30w 2n51w. Scattered
moderate convection is from 4n-8n between 18w-28w. Isolated
moderate convection is from 4n-9n between 43w-50w.
...Discussion...
Gulf of Mexico...
a vigorous deep layer trough is over the ern conus dipping into
the central and wrn Gulf. This trough supports two cold fronts.
One extends across the W Atlc waters into The Straits of Florida
across far wrn Cuba into the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered
showers are across srn Florida...the se Gulf and Yucatan
Channel. A reinforcing surface cold front extends from the
Florida Big Bend near 29n83w SW to 27n85w and 24n91w. As cooler
air behind the front is advected over relatively warmer Gulf
waters...low level instability is generating scattered
stratocumulus clouds in the wake of the front N of 24n. The
presence of deep layer dry air and stable conditions are
preventing the development of any deep convection across the
Gulf region. A surface ridge extends se from a 1026 mb surface
high centered over N/central Mexico near 28n103w. N-NE surface
flow around this ridge is generating broken to overcast clouds
into the Bay of Campeche with possible isolated showers S of 22n.
Caribbean Sea...
the aforementioned cold front associated with the deep layer
trough across the Gulf region extends across wrn Cuba and into
the NW Caribbean as a stationary boundary to near 16n86w. Low
level convergence with this front and instability along and
ahead of the front are supporting scattered showers and tstms
from 20n across Cuba and into the W Atlc between 80w-83w. This
activity is being enhanced by upper level divergence as an upper
ridge is anchored in the central and ern Caribbean centered over
Hispaniola. A 1012 mb surface low is centered E of Nicaragua
near 14n82w. Low level convergence near this low is supporting
scattered showers/isolated tstms from 10n-16n between 80w-83w.
This activity is also being enhanced by the upper diffluent
pattern in place over the SW Caribbean with moist southwesterly
flow aloft. Elsewhere...low-level cyclonic curvature is observed
in the wind field and is inducing scattered showers from 12n-16n
between 60w-66w across the ern Caribbean ushered in on fresh
easterly trades.
Atlantic Ocean...
a vigorous deep layer trough is over the ern conus with strong
upper level divergence E of the trough across the W Atlc waters.
This though supports a cold front that enters the discussion
area near 32n74w and extends SW to Grand Bahama Island and
across the Florida Straits to wrn Cuba. Scattered showers and
tstms are within 150 nm E of the front...including the NW
Bahamas and central Cuba. To the E...a 1028 mb surface high is
centered near 30n56w with support from an amplified upper ridge
centered over Hispaniola which extends NE beyond 32n63w. Across
the E Atlc...a surface low is centered near 27n34w with a
surface trough extending SW from the low along 24n34w 15n40w to
12n46w. This surface feature is supported by sharp upper level
troughing that extends from an upper low north of the region
near 37n37w. The upper trough axis is along 30n39w 20n45w to
13n56w. Low level convergence near the surface trough is
generating scattered showers within 90 nm E of the feature S of
22n while an area of scattered showers is from 22n-32n between
26w-33w. Elsewhere...an upper ridge is S of 20n between the
African coast and 33w...with an upper high near 8n13w. Upper
level diffluence associated with these upper features are
enhancing convection in the vicinity of the ITCZ E of 33w.
$$
Huffman
